Seal a prediction, score it when the date arrives. The form quietly assumes the observer does not move what is observed. In a domain where moving it is the point, and where the predictor is the one acting, that assumption stops holding.
Question
What can a seal-and-score apparatus measure when the predictor is also the actor? Where does the observational contract break, and what is the smallest change that repairs it?
Current public state
The observational prediction contract breaks in five places: a miss cannot be split into a wrong model and nobody acting, the predictor can go and make its own prediction false, the scoring date is not theirs to choose, waiting becomes a stall, and success moves the distribution being measured.
Each breach is answered by an invariant that refuses the record. Scoring runs only through a four-point joint — threshold, decision, execution, result — and a prediction whose decision never opened can be neither supported nor refuted. Self-interference is settled by a stance declared at seal time; counting an intervention as its own success was declined, because it would stop the ledger separating a good model from a good operator.
Evidence boundary: Contract validation only. No prediction sealed in this grammar has reached a scoring date, and there is no guarantee that five is the complete set of breaches.
Read the current Research Note (EP-0001) →